Rick Bruner has written a new report for DoubleClick on the Decade in Advertising. I've only had time for a quick skim, but its an interesting summary of the industry and has some solid predictions for where things are heading in the advertising industry.
Premium media brands are likely to attempt to further reduce ad clutter to avoid the risk of turning off their audiences. Publishers that depict the sponsorship value of advertising more transparently to consumers and at the same time reduce interruption-overload will benefit from more loyal audiences and higher ad prices.
SMBs can't afford to add much clutter to the media landscape, so I would agree that it really is up to premium brands to reduce their ad clutter. This would create a better climate for advertisers, publishers and consumers, with those in the industry getting better value for their money, and consumers having a few less (but hopefully better quality) choices. You can download a pdf of the report here.